Risk Analysis Changes as Covid 19 Continues To Change

Last August looked positive for seeing an ending to the pandemic as there were no Omicron BA.5 replacements in the works. However, this doesn’t mean there never will be a replacement. Viruses do change. Months later we still see no potential replacement that is more transmission-able than Omicron BA.5. As far as vaccines are concerned, over the course of most of the pandemic there was no change, but more recently there were changes to the boosters which are geared for BA.4 and BA.5.

About 80 percent of the American population is currently vaccinated. New data has come out showing that vaccinated people have died more from Covid than unvaccinated people. So it is not surprising to see a surge in deaths from Covid among those who have been vaccinated and boosted. Some of the latest CDC data has shown that 58 percent of Covid deaths in the US are from people who have been vaccinated and boosted. In September 2021, only 23 percent of vaccinated people died of Covid. Then in January and February of 2022, it went up to 42 percent for vaccinated people with boosters dying of Covid. And then in August of 2022, it went up to 58 percent! This means the ‘pandemic’ of the unvaccinated as President Biden used to say in order to encourage people to get vaccinated has changed. The idea of using that slogan to encourage people to get vaccinated was a bad idea, more political than common sense medicine because the virus changes and increases vaccinations over time.

On August 31st, 2022, the FDA approved the first major update on the vaccine, a vaccine that was geared for the new variants, BA.4 and BA.5, along with the old variant. The one thing found that is very strange, to say the least when this original variant included in the vaccine doesn’t exist anymore. Nobody is getting infected anymore by the original strain. The updated booster was recommended for people 5 years or older. Previously it was recommended for people 12 years and up. This bivalent shot hasn’t been a hit with the American population, only 35 million which is about 11 percent have gotten the newly updated shot. Data has shown, the average infection rate was 50,000+ for the US, which dropped beginning around October 10th, 2022, where it’s been around 37,000 to 41,000+ infection rate up until December 2nd, 2022. At the time of this post being written.

Sadly, the new CDC study only mentions the benefits of the bivalent vaccines rather than mentioning adverse effects, hospitalization, or deaths along with the benefits. There is also a strange comparison in this study one could say political in nature rather than science-based, and that is, why is the CDC comparing the new vaccines with the old ones when Covid 19 isn’t the same virus as it was in the past? As stated before, nobody is getting infected with the original strain of Covid 19. Omicron has taken over with its subvariants for months now. Furthermore, vaccines wane over time with their protection while the virus continues to change. Currently, we don’t have the data that shows the new vaccines are preventing serious illnesses and deaths. These are only assumptions being made. But yet, the likes of Celine Gounder who is an infectious disease specialist for the Kaiser Family Foundation said there is no evidence that these new vaccines are better than the previous ones but recommends people take them anyway!

Pei-Yong-Shi virologist from the University of Texas medical branch said that so many have been infected both vaccinated and unvaccinated people that has created an enormous wealth of immunity that it’s difficult to measure the effectiveness of the newly updated vaccines. He goes on to say, “Personally I doubt if there would have been much if any difference but we may never know.” This makes it easier for people like President Biden to make a case for the booster because it’s up to mere speculation. It’s also easier to be wrong like in the case of President Biden claiming the disease was the disease of the unvaccinated.

Let’s take a look at natural immunity in Italy and some new data about cross-immunity in general. There has been -new data coming out concerning these two subject matters but different studies. The first one linked above is from Italy, the study is showing a progression of less severe illnesses over time with fewer hospitalizations and fewer deaths among the population which is very positive! 20 to 40-fold reductions with Omicron being the dominant strain compared to the previous strains of Covid. The trend is predicted to continue. Also, another positive aspect going on recently. The first phase is the Wuhan phase (the original strain) they noticed a 5.4 percent hospitalization rate per infection. The study uses the number of infections or what they call the attack rate rather than cases using data with mathematical adjustments. The probability of death was 2.2 percent as at the beginning of the pandemic it affected older people the most and those who had other medical issues.

When the Omicron phase came around, there was a 95.1 percent reduction in the risk of hospitalization. ICU risk of admission went down by 97.3 percent. And the risk of death went down the most at 97.5. Which is great news. There was a gradual reduction in risk over time with the Omicron strain compared to previous strains. Omicron has accelerated the process of natural immunity. With the attack rate in phase one without lockdown restrictions or restrictions in general, the attack rate was 2.8 percent of Italy’s population. In phase two without restrictions, jumped to 11.4 percent of Italy’s population. Phase three: Alpha variant which went on for five months, the attack rate went down to 10.1 percent. In phase 4, a relaxation of restrictions the attack rate become 17.1. And in the Omicron phase, the attack rate was over 51 percent of Italy’s population. So over half the population was infected with Covid regardless of previous vaccinations or not, regardless of previously being sick by Covid. A very high infection rate is bad but the good news is, Omicron created a lot more immunity at a quicker pace. The huge amount of protection from Omicron is great news while vaccine protection wanes quickly. It would be also great if the countries like the United States (the CDC) would also study this as well after a year of Omicron.

Cross immunity has been one of the rarest studies for Covid 19, but worth taking a look at in more studies because it’s definitely an important study. Big drug companies do not have an interest in studying natural immunity let alone “cross immunity”. Because of course, it may damage their drug profits. A new study called, Common Endemic Coronaviruses published in nature communications answers the question about a belief at the beginning of the pandemic that the common cold could help protect against the SARS-2 virus. There are four coronavirus viruses that cause the common cold. 20 to 25 perhaps even as high as 30 percent of colds are caused by coronaviruses while the rest are caused by Rhinoviruses. If you have been infected by one of these four viruses recently, will that give you cross-immunity with the SARS-2 virus? The answer is yes! Memory T-cells play a huge role in the cross-immunity process.

In a study (click on cross-immunity) they went into peoples’ homes when someone in their home was infected by Covid. They tested the rest of the households who didn’t have Covid for previous coronaviruses in the T-cells. They found that those people did in fact have protection against the SARS-2 virus, and thus cross-immunity was confirmed. It is interesting to note, the memory T-cells were identifying other cells of the virus when building its protection against SARS 2, rather than the spike proteins which is what vaccines are focused on. Why did the drug companies just focus on the spike proteins and not on other aspects of the Coronavirus SARS 2 virus like the memory T-cells did? They could have chosen other parts of the virus which would have activated the memory T-cells but there is no rationale published by the private drug companies on why the spike protein was the most important aspect of the virus and the only option for vaccinations than what the memory T-cells were using. One would think that these options could have made their vaccines better! Only China tried another option in one of their vaccines.

Slightly early on in the pandemic,, doctors were exploring treatments and one of the treatments that arose was Vitamin D. In a follow-up to this treatment many months later, Scientific Reports had a great article on Vitamin D. This comes at a good time as winter approaches. Viruses spread more easily in the winter months. Lack of vitamin D causes immune function problems. Drug companies have avoided doing random tests with vitamin D because it is selling vaccinations. No profit for them with Vitamin D. The US veterans was part of the study using Vitamin D2 and Vitamin D3. Either one can do the job. But D3 is slightly better. Over 220,000+ people used D3. 34,000+ used D2, and 407,000+ patients were untreated. A very good size for this kind of study. It takes a couple of weeks before the body is able to implement the Vitamin D supplement taken by the person. The best treatment is to take it before infection, long before the infection is the best. The study discovered that Vitamin D3 had a reduction of 20 percent with infections and 28 percent with D2. It doesn’t make D2 better overall but better only with infections! D2 has a higher rate of deaths than D3 which makes D3 better. D3 reduces deaths with Covid by 33 percent. A 67 percent survival rate. D2 is 25 percent lower but not that significant the study points out. Why isn’t there a push for people to take Vitamin D as there was to get vaccinated? Perhaps the drug companies do not make enough profit…The study concludes, “As a safe, widely available, affordable treatment, Vitamin D may help to reduce the severity of the Covid 19 pandemic.”


Replacement For Omicron BA.5? Positive Outlook

Omicron BA.5 is declining at a rapid pace in the United Kingdom and in the United States, BA.5 is slowly going down. The United States still has the highest death rate from mainly Covid complications in the world. Click the chart to enlarge…

Previous variants of Covid are disappearing. BA.4, is only 7.7 percent in the United States. BA.1.1 and BA.1.1529 no longer exist. Eventually, this is going to happen to BA.2.12.1 and both BA.4.6 and BA.4. As this post is being written, there is no indication for a replacement for BA.5! Normally in the past, a new variant or variants emerge and start an upward trend replacing previous variants and then the leading variant itself. This does not mean Covid is going to disappear! It would be nice if this was the case but extremely unlikely. This may in fact indicate a mild Covid winter! Interesting to note, that BA.2.75 discovered as a new variant some weeks ago is not listed at all. Like both BA.1s, it has disappeared very quickly! 

Hospitalizations in the US went down by 3.8 percent in the last week of July 2022 which is good news. Slight increase in ICU patients previously but that is also started to go down. More good news is the test positivity rate in the United States has started to go down as well. The death rate in the United States has been flat, 393 per day which is the largest rate in the world. But that is predicted to go down in the coming weeks or months. 

Japan which has avoided many infections early on in the pandemic is now getting hit hard with BA.5, they have the largest increase in new cases! Australia which is second highest is going down along with countries like Germany, New Zealand, and the United Kingdom. Same with hospitalizations for these countries. They are also going down except for Germany which is slightly going up. 

 Dr. Fauci’s Insane Vaccination Theory

Dr. Fauci who is 81 years old decided he’s going to retire at the end of Biden’s term did an interview with the Washington Post…Here he makes the claim that vaccinations will control Omicron BA.5! He has been making this claim since the beginning of the pandemic! The virus has changed but Fauci has not. Which means, Dr. Fauci is outdated! During the interview, Fauci tries to scare people, if they don’t get vaccinated, he says, they will be in trouble with their health! High vaccination rate in the UK for example was unable to control BA.5 infections. President Biden another example, vaccinated and boosted twice. Tested positive for Covid. His vaccinations were unable to control the virus.

Long term Covid is going to leave some with long term disabilities, others will recover but it takes longer. Longer term Covid has been around for awhile. Complications from vaccinations or Covid is complex, currently there is not data to seperate the two. Other viruses are still active, the flu is low because it’s summer but will increase as the weather turns into autumn and winter.

16 to 24 years old have the lowest vaccination rate of any group, however, according to the data, this group has a high level of antibodies. Your immune system protects you from thousands of viruses, bacteria and so on. Covid is no different which is why this group has a high level of antibodies but a low vaccinated rate.

Omicron Exposes the Flaws On Narrow Vaccination Policies

Covid 19 is changing at a rapid pace, each subvariant of Omicron is spreading more easily than previous ones and the latest being BA.5. At the moment, BA.2.75 is a new Omicron variant which is now being monitored since July 7th, 2022. Previously, it was not possible to comment on the new variant due to a lack of data, but now there is some data, but not much. More data will be forthcoming. From BA.4 to BA.5 to BA.2.75 all mutated from BA.2 which mutated from BA.1 of Omicron. The new BA.2.75 is not a recombination of other variants so it’s not a hybrid! Although the name which was given to it, “Centaurus” suggests that it is.

Currently, BA.2.75 is 50 percent of the cases in India. However, India has low levels of BA.5, so BA.2.75 is competing with BA.2 in India, which we know is spreading more easily. It’s unknown yet, how it will do against BA.5, it’s possible that it may hit a brick wall once BA.5 cases increase to a certain level. Or it may also dominate BA.5. So far there is no evidence that it will make people sicker. Although that could change.

As far as BA.5, in some cases in certain parts of the world, its causes more disease than less while in other parts of the world not as much. The United States has experienced an increase in hospitalizations because of BA.5 but it’s been tiny so far. There also has been a slight increase in cases for ventilation beds but remains flat. In other words, not surging like it did back at the peak of Omicron back in April of 2022. Covid symptoms overall are surging to peak levels and may even surpass the previous record of BA.1 and BA.2! On the bright side, deaths in the UK affected by BA.5, are going down.

This pandemic has been used and in some cases continues to be used for government expansion over people’s lives! The surge of BA.5, for example, has the UK thinking about bringing back government restrictions that as we know had little to no impact. No data on mask-wearing with Omicron. New York passed a rule back in response to Omicron known as Rule 2.13 under the Isolation and Quarantine procedures. The rule says…

“whenever appropriate to control the spread of a highly contagious communicable disease, the State Commissioner of Health may issue and/or may direct the local health authority to issue isolation and/or quarantine orders, consistent with due process of law, to all such persons as the State Commissioner of Health shall determine appropriate.” In other words, if you tested positive for Covid, the public health authority would issue you an order on where and how long you must isolate from the rest of the public. Some government officials sued the state of NY arguing that the Isolation and Quarantine procedures were in violation of the New York State Constitution and a violation of the separation of powers.

On July 8th, the Justice of the Supreme Court of Cattaraugus County sided with the plaintiffs declaring the rule to be in violation of the New York State Constitution and a violation of the separation of powers. The Judge’s ruling says this…

“Respondents offered no scientific data or expert testimony why Rule 2.13 was a necessary response to combat COVID-19, but instead contend only that it would provide a quick and nimble approach to combating the pandemic,”  “Nevertheless, during oral argument of this matter, at a time when we hope that the worst of the pandemic is behind us, counsel for the Respondents were unable to cite any instance where the procedure set forth in Rule 2.13 was actually utilized.”

Some have called government restrictions overbearing regulations, and government conditioning for more future regulations. While NY restrictions on people who may have Covid got some relief from a judge, China’s communist party used the most strict lockdown measures in the world known as the zero Covid strategy, which had people screaming from their windows in pain and hunger (not allowed to go food shopping) along with massive testing and shutting down work causing shortages. For the rest of the world, most people have returned to mostly normal situations but some of the media and now more liberal states in America like New York and California are hyping up the latest subvariant BA.5 as the “Ninja” variant! Making suggestions at this point with recommending previous government restrictions.

Reinfections are increasing as Omicron BA.5 Continues to Spread At Record Pace

According to the Australian Health Protection Principal Committee, people who have recovered from Covid 19, can get reinfected again as early as 28 days! BA.4 is also included in this new reinfection rate along with those who are up to date with their vaccinations! However, the government goes on to say vaccinations prevent severe illness without a random study to suggest such a conclusion. Also, they don’t say how long this unconfirmed protection against severe illness lasts! Wouldn’t you think this would be important to conduct some random studies to try and find out?

Vaccination losing its efficacy as Covid Continues To Change

18 months ago, it was assumed (even I assumed it) that vaccinations would become yearly much like the flu shots. This means, the virus would become more predictable, and like the flu shot, vaccinations would be updated on a regular basis to account for various seasons of the virus but this hasn’t been the case. As Omicron progresses, its changes have been so fast that science hasn’t been able to keep up! As a result, this idea of vaccine updates as a viable option may not be the case anymore! According to Dr. Onyema Obgbuagu of Yale School of Medicine, updates on vaccinations may not have a broader range of protection against new Omicron variants and subvariants!

Covid-19 Vaccine Effectiveness against the Omicron (B.1.1.529) Variant -The New England Journal of Medicine

“Between November 27, 2021, and January 12, 2022, a total of 886,774 eligible persons infected with the omicron variant, 204,154 eligible persons infected with the delta variant, and 1,572,621 eligible test-negative controls were identified. At all time points investigated and for all combinations of primary course and booster vaccines, vaccine effectiveness against symptomatic disease was higher for the delta variant than for the omicron variant. No effect against the omicron variant was noted from 20 weeks after two ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 doses…

This study did not get a lot of media attention from big corporate outlets. This brings us to the next item of concern…

The Problem With Policy Being Influenced by Big Drug Companies in the United States

This began with the Trump administration, which cut red tape and change the definition of a vaccine in order to fast-track vaccination approval. It was thought to be impossible as previous MRA vaccines did not get approval while some experts predicted 2 years, but within nine months, the start of many vaccinations began! Three vaccines were eventually approved in the United States as previous blog posts covered some of that which became the dominant treatment for Covid 19 for practically all ages! Other treatments were shunned especially when the medication was used for other diseases, only experimental treatments by drug companies were more accepted but not as much as the three vaccines.

Billions of dollars of taxpayer money were poured into drug companies making vaccines. Media outlets who were sponsored by big drug companies reframed from any major criticism of their experimental vaccines! They promoted the idea that this would stop the spread of Covid, then they promoted the idea that this would save their lives by reducing the symptoms. Currently, there is no study confirming such an assumption. Even Dr. Fauci who recently got Covid despite being vaccinated a number of times! Here is what he said during an interview with Fox News…

“At my age, being vaccinated and boosted, even though it didn’t protect me against infection, I feel confident that it made a major role in protecting me from progressing to severe disease,” said Fauci, who is 81 and has been in charge of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases since the Reagan administration. But where are the studies that would lead to such a conclusion from Dr. Fauci? Why isn’t he going by data rather than his belief? And why haven’t studies been made concerning the impact of vaccinations on covid symptoms? This is what happens when medicine gets political! Common sense falls by the wayside for a political agenda!

Omicron has been changing very rapidly, reducing the main three vaccinations in the US effectiveness. The CDC reported that after 3 months of the second dose of the Pfizer vaccine there is no protection! However, we still see requirements for getting vaccinated! What is the point if you are not going to have protection from the virus after 3 months? It’s not possible to keep vaccinating people every 20 weeks!

In the early stages of the disease, people were taking risks with these vaccines because the virus was unknown, and at the time it was common sense to take such a risk especially if you had a pre-condition or at high risk due to age, but now since we know a lot more about the disease.

The US military run by the Biden administration, where required vaccinations are one of the main reasons that recruitment is down. Schools also are mandating vaccinations for kids in the United States making some parents not happy that people want to stick a needle into their children whether it works or not, whether it may affect them or not!

While the US quickly approved vaccines from its three companies but slowed down considerably not approving other promising vaccines like covaxin, novavax, an inhaled vaccine, which are considered good alternatives and had success. Finally, on June 7th, 2022, novavax was approved for use for people 18 and over. The other two are still waiting to be approved! However, there is no spiked vaccine that is totally safe, there is always a risk even with the safer ones! Vaccinations are not all bad, but you have to weigh the risk factor and benefits when making such decisions about what goes into your body.

We are certainly not going to live with Covid 19, with the flu model, the virus changes way too fast for that. We should be more focused and more money spent on treatments outside of vaccinations! There are still some good ones that still work against Omicron BA.5. But we need more research and development in this area. The vaccine focus in the United States hasn’t worked and becoming less effective, as the virus changes medicine has to change too!

Are We Still In A Emergency Status For Covid-19?

A doctor in Nigeria coin this phrase: “Omicron: The Vaccine That Couldn’t Be Made”, and he could be correct on this! In the previous post, it was explained how Omicron was used as Covid 19, is more political than about the science. However, a week later after the post, cases of Omicron skyrocketed to new records. Even just recently, in the UK, their new cases increased to an all-time high!

A local newspaper which is immersed into the political side of dealing with Covid 19, wrote this…

When Omicron first came out and was confirmed to spread more easily than Delta and other previous variants, imposing more restrictions, mask mandates, vaccination mandates and so on. Here we see in this article, despite Omcron: BA.2 being more contagious than BA.1, cases are not going to increase! But why, all he says he is more optimistic! Since this article, cases in the United States hit an all-time high, but have new cases have declined considerabilty since and so have deaths, mainly complications from Covid 19. Only a small percentage of the population who were infected have died directly from Covid-19. As far as Omicron, those infected and recovered from BA.1 have high immunity not only against Delta, but also BA.2, likewise, if one is infected with BA.2, that person is more immunity to Delta and BA.1.

If you take into account people who were vaccinated and those who have herd immunity or both, make up a high degree of protection. It is a good idea for high risk people to get vaccinated rather than everyone get vaccinated! Because there is a health risk, not everyone will have a positive effect with the vaccine in fact many have died from being vaccinated, 114,000 were hospitalized from vaccinations in the United States. Also, you can’t keep vaccinating huge populations every six months! It’s not practical. You have to treat it like any other virus!

Recently, drug companies have been coming applying for a 4th booster shot, one company Moderna has applied for an emergency use authorization for another dose of its Covid-19 vaccine in the United States! Their application is for everyone 18 and over if this gets approved. A question comes to mind, is it really an emergency to vaccinate healthy 18 to 25 year olds or may have had the infection who have been vaccinated 3 times already? Do we need a specified booster for Omicron the first one I might add since the original Covid-19 strain came out in 2020, since Omicron has been spreading for quite some time now creating large amounts of immunity about 8 months or so, longer than vaccinations.

What about the 4th dose creating more antibodies? Isn’t this the best reason to get another booster? This is always been a selling point to keep on boosting people every six months. Remember, drug companies are making many millions of dollars with all these shots so they have a huge incentive to keep the booster factory going! While it is true, the 4th booster will increase antibodies but what does this mean for long-term immunity, or for t-cells, and other cells connected to the immune system? Just increasing antibodies doesn’t tell you anything! We need evidence, does these continual vaccinations like the 4th booster shot reduce hospitalizations or death or both? Another question, is it an emergency for low risk people like 18 to 25 or even older who are healthy? Is this low risk group at such a risk of having major hospitalziations and death from Omicron variants? Most likely not! It would make more sense for those at higher risk! But even so, this is not an emergency at this stage of the pandemic in fact, we should be transitioning to the endemic stage! Like Denmark!

Denmark dropped all it’s restrictions thereby ending the pandemic in their counntry. The government said that Covid 19 is no longer a threat to society, meaning that the hospitals will not be overrun by Covid patients which was why restrictions were put in place in that country! Government, mainstream media, Denmark’s people, all in agreement about going back to normal, something you don’t see in the United States!